Australasian Biometrics/
NZSA Conference 2001
New Zealand Statistical Association Newsletter 57
March 2003
New Zealand Needs Mathematics Graduates
Jeff Hunter - letter to NZ Herald
Jeff Hunter and Steve Haslett - letter to NZ Listener
Roger Littlejohn - Editorial Comment
Richard Penny - letter to NZSA Newsletter
Harold Henderson - link to NZ Herald on RSNZ President
The Weekend Herald, February 22-23 reported that Professor John Hattie,
Professor of Education at the University of Auckland, stated in a speech
delivered at the 2003 Knowledge Wave Conference that "graduates in science
and maths were among the highest in the ranks of unemployed university
graduates. Boosting their numbers might simply drive more of them
overseas." Further,
the New Zealand Herald Editorial of February 25
suggests "there is not much call for more of them unless the science or
technology industry grows". Firstly, Professor Hattie’s remarks do not necessarily
reflect what is actually happening in the country. I believe that he may
have misinterpreted the figures from the "University Graduate
Destinations" Reports produced by the New Zealand Vice-Chancellors’
Committee. Secondly, we have a major problem in that the country is
producing too few graduates in the quantitative areas and little is being
done to alleviate the situation. Let’s focus on Maths/Operations Research (OR) and
Statistics graduates (fields that interest me!) and delve a little more
deeply. I’ll compare some figures [percentage of students from the given
year in the given group for the next year - ‘Not employed’ and ‘Full-time
study’ are not mutually exclusive - Ed] from the NZVCC reports from the
last four years (2000,
2001):
Mathematics/OR
Statistics
All Bach & Hons
Mathematics/OR
Statistics
All Bach & Hons
Mathematics/OR
Statistics
All Bach & Hons
One of the problems is that while Maths and OR graduates superficially appear to have higher unemployment rates than other graduates they also have a much higher rate of being involved in "Fulltime study" than other disciplines. The NZVCC reports combine both Bachelors and Honours graduates - in many disciplines students leave university as soon as they can after a Bachelors degree while in the Maths area in particular many continue for an Honours degree or an additional qualification that makes them much more employable.
In a major report for MoRST that I was involved with in 1998 we pointed out that NZ has a low percentage of total graduates in the maths & the computing sciences (0.8% compared to an average of 3.5% for OECD countries in 1996), poor performance in our schools (evidenced in the Third International Mathematics and Science study in 1997), a shortage of Mathematics teachers, a diminished research capacity in our CRIs, and mathematics is generally undervalued and under-utilised in New Zealand business and government. Yet Mathematics directly underpins a significant proportion (often over 50%) of total business and government activity.
Last week I attended a seminar delivered by the Government Statistician, Mr Brian Pink, on "Some Challenges for Official Statistics" at Massey University, Palmerston North. Let me quote direct from his overheads on one of those challenges: "Shortage of Quantitative Skills"
- Demand within Government now obviously exceeds supply;
- Premium for skills in the marketplace;
- Major capability challenge for the sector;
- Impacting very specifically on Statistics New Zealand capability;
- No real signs of an increased supply from within New Zealand.
I questioned him as to his requirements and he spoke of the need for around 25 graduates a year (preferably at Honours level).
The rather superficial comment attributed to Professor Hattie unfortunately gives the public the perception that the country does not need mathematicians and quantitatively trained graduates. To the contrary we have a major national problem with diminished capabilities because of a lack of graduates in these areas.
Jeffrey Hunter
To date no response has been received from the NZ Herald.
Steve Haslett and Jeff Hunter have subsequently sent a letter to the Editor of the New Zealand Listener on February 28, which appears in the Listener of March 22-28. Thanks to the Listener for permission to reprint it here.
Mathematicians Needed
At the 2003 Knowledge Wave Conference, Professor John Hattie, Professor of Education at the University of Auckland wrote "Graduates in science and maths were among the highest in the ranks of unemployed university graduates. Boosting their numbers might simply drive more of them overseas".
In private correspondence since the conference, Professor Hattie agreed that his comments are factually incorrect. He says that he did not mention this matter in his speech because he had been unable to verify his viewpoint, and for this reason had asked before the conference that the relevant section of his paper be changed. It was the original version however that was picked up by the press.
We were two of the members of the committee which in 1998 produced a major report for the Ministry of Research Science and Technology on the state of Information and Mathematical Sciences in New Zealand. New Zealand has low graduate numbers in computing sciences and maths (0.8% of total graduates in the Mathematics and Computer Sciences versus an average of 3.5% for the OECD countries in 1996), a shortage of Mathematics teachers, comparatively poor performance in our schools (as evidenced in the Third International Mathematics and Science study in 1997), and diminished research capacity in our Crown Research Institutes.Yet, as the report showed, Mathematics directly underpins a significant proportion of New Zealand business and government activity.
More focus and support is needed on quantitative disciplines, not less. The press coverage of the Knowledge Wave Conference has left the erroneous impression that the country does not need such graduates. Too few students are putting in the extra time and effort needed to study them. What we actually have in New Zealand is a major, chronic shortage of Mathematics and Statistics graduates.
Jeffrey J Hunter,
Professor of Statistics, Massey University
Stephen Haslett
President, New Zealand Statistical Association
The "University Graduate Destinations" Report produced by the New Zealand Vice-Chancellors’ Committee in December 2001 concerning graduates of 2000 can be obtained here. An inspection of the Table for Mathematics and Information Sciences Destinations of New Zealand Respondents (page 57) will show why Jeff used the expression "One of the problems ..." in his letter, as there are clearly issues with non-response and sample size as well.
I will use this page to include on-going correspondence on this subject from NZSA members and all interested parties. Email replies to roger.littlejohn@agresearch.co.nz.
Roger Littlejohn
Some years ago I was discussing graduate employment with the graduate recruitment officer at the University of Canterbury. He mentioned that arts graduates are less likely to be unemployed a year after graduation than science and engineering graduates. When I expressed some scepticism he commented that many arts graduates don't expect to have a job related to their degree, whereas science and engineering graduates do. Thus lots of arts graduate will take whatever reasonable job that requires a degree, whereas many science and engineering graduates hold out for the job that they feel they been trained for.
A recent talk by someone from the Office of National Statistics (UK equivalent to SNZ) mentioned that a recent study by the ONS estimated that only half the number of statisticians required over the next 10 years will actually be produced by UK universities. Given NZ graduates are more likely to travel to the UK rather than vice versa I suspect NZ universities will help fix this problem, of course at a cost to New Zealand's statistical capability.
As an aside, four significant figures in the table? I wonder what the non-response rate was? My guess is it was high; therefore integers I think are more appropriate. And speaking about non-response I have a recollection someone telling me it was hard getting responses from science graduates as they are more likely to go to overseas jobs after graduating and overseas response rates tended to be poor.
Richard Penny
A profile on Jim Watson, CEO of Genesis Research and new president of the Royal Society of NZ, in the Weekend Herald of 15 March, is interesting reading.
It includes:
As president of the Royal Society for the next three years, he will lead the society's presentations to the Government on science policy. Society chief executive Steve Thompson says its top priority is to help the education system turn out the kind of scientists the country will need.
Watson says his biggest emphasis will be on "enhancing the profile of science in our youth".
He sees "huge potential" for future jobs in molecular biology, immunology, computer science and in bioinformatics, using computers to analyse biological information such as genetic structures and functions.
Harold Henderson